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Table of Contents
Figure: TABLES Chapter I Introduction 1.1 Overview Most of the cities in developing countries are highly polluted. The main reasons are the air and noise pollution caused by transport vehicles, especially petrol- powered two and three wheelers. For example, in Philippines there are close to 7. million petrol powered two wheelers and about 1.5 million petrol and diesel powered three wheelers and their population is growing at a healthy rate of about 0.04 % per annum in year 2013. Besides being a major hazard to people’s health, these machines are eating huge amounts of petrol and diesel for which the country has to pay dearly in foreign exchange outflow. In fact it is a common sight in developing countries that during traffic jams in congested areas of cities these vehicles produce tremendous pollution. [1] An electric vehicles provides a non-polluting and a very silent transport system for urban and rural areas of Philippines specifically in the chosen area which is Cagayan De Oro City. Besides it is a very energy efficient and cost effective vehicle. Work done at our School has shown that improved cycle tricycles powered by electric motor and batteries have a potential to provide an attractive alternative to petrol and diesel powered three wheelers. Besides they can also provide large scale employment
and extra income to the tricycle puller. Philippine economy is rapidly developing and is becoming increasingly dependent on foreign oil. In year 2013, imports with a total 56% of its yearly petroleum needs, and it is predicted that in 15 years it will have to import nearly to 86% based on Department of Energy. This combination of heavy consumption and the wide use of inefficient two and three wheeled vehicles are leading to an environmental crisis. Air pollution in major cities like Cagayan De Oro City is harmful for vehicular emissions are responsible for millions of health problems and premature deaths in Philippines.[2] Solar-electric technology promises to reduce these problems. It is readily available, accessible throughout the city and entire country. And also doesn’t suffer the supply issues of compressed natural gas (CNG). In addition it is subsidized by the government and is very affordable. [2] Financial and economic evaluations are the main features of a feasibility study. Financial evaluation would look mainly into the money aspects of the project and its rewards and financial profitability to the investors. Whereas a financial study can usually be undertaken by a financial analyst(s) and engineers, an economic evaluation study demands the involvement of economic and environmental disciplines and analysis that is beyond the proficiency of most engineers, accountants and financial analysts [3]. Photovoltaic systems convert sunlight directly into electricity, without converting it to heat first. Conversion efficiencies are typically in the 12% - 20% range without concentrators, and 22% - 28% with concentrators. These systems generate electricity directly from solar cells made from semiconductor materials. The solar cell is specially treated to give one layer (the n layer), a negative charge and the other layer (the p-layer) a positive charge when sunlight enters the cell structure. This sets up a cell barrier between the semiconductor layers, creating a current and a voltage across the cell. Sunlight striking the cell excites electrons, which move across the cell. The electron flow is conducted by metallic contacts placed on the cell in a grid-like fashion. PV cells are electrically and physically linked together into modules. The entire structure, along with the supporting elements, is called an array. Each module is given a peak power rating according to the output under standard test conditions [4]
1.4 Significance of the Study Mindanao University of Science and Technology is making its way to be one of the prestigious schools of the country. As part of its development program with the collaboration Abante Mindanao (ABAMIN) they donated E- trike to be develop as Solar Powered Electric Tricycle to be used in transportation sector and to improve the quality of life of the drivers. With the collaboration of 5 TH^ year students of Electrical Engineering (EE) and Electronics Engineering (ECE) they develop the electric tricycle into solar power tricycle. Also to give the owner of the tricycle/vehicle an idea on the economic aspects of the Solar Powered Tricycle/Vehicle. 1.5 Scope and Limitation The study mainly covers only on Economic and Financial analysis of Solar Powered Electric Tricycle and base only on the calculation that has been evaluated by the researcher. This study is limited only in Electric Tricycle produce by ABAMIN (Abante Mindanao) for the renewable energy potential in transportation sector.
Chapter 2
Review of Related Literature
2.1 Introduction Air pollution is a major contributor to global warming, it leads to respiratory diseases and it destroys plants and animals. Over 100 million tons of pollution is released into the air every year in the U.S., and in 2005 over 122 million people lived in U.S. counties that did not meet the clean air standards as set by the Environmental Protection Agency. [1] Of all the oil consumed in the U.S., 70 percent is used for transportation. Further, passenger vehicles use 70 percent of transportation oil. [2] Globally, a rising middle class in China and India is causing demand for passenger cars to balloon, and with it, demand for oil. By 2050, there may be as many as 1.5 billion cars on the road, compared to 750 million in 2010. [3].This type of demand represents both a challenge and an opportunity to capitalize on new vehicle technologies, and in the process, reap substantial economic development benefits. In a world where oil is a limited resource, an alternate source of transportation fuel – electricity – is not only a smart investment, but as some would say, it is an inevitable one. Further, the switch to electric vehicles will generate demand for existing jobs and create new jobs as well. As study after study confirms, job growth in electric vehicle industries will outweigh any reduction of jobs in traditional fuel industries, resulting in net job growth. Electric vehicles create additional economic development opportunities by improving quality of life, reducing energy spending, and decreasing reliance on foreign oil. [3] 2.2 The Importance of Electric Vehicles to Economic Development Like any transformative new technology, electric vehicles create a variety of potent economic development challenges and opportunities. While the electric vehicle market is still at a relatively early stage of development, it is poised to reshape industries and communities the world over. This section provides a quick overview of the potential benefits of electric vehicles so that economic developers can better
highly talented workers. Surveys of buyers who preordered the Nissan Leaf indicate they are an educated and tech-savvy group. In fact, the average Leaf buyer is: Around 45 years old, Owns a home and a garage, Makes about $125,000 a year, Is college-educated, and Already owns a fuel-efficient vehicle such as the Toyota Prius.[6] Surveys by the University of Michigan and Pike Research found that the more education a person has, the more likely he or she is to be interested in purchasing a plug-in hybrid vehicle. [7] Those with higher income are also more likely to purchase a PEV.[8] However, a Deloitte survey found that even these early adopters are sensitive to government incentives and overall cost considerations.[9] Thus, communities that adopt charging infrastructure and offer purchase incentives can strengthen their appeal to these educated, wealthier workers. 2.2.3: Electric Vehicles Can Reduce Reliance on Foreign Oil According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, over 80 percent of the cost of a gallon of gas immediately leaves the local economy.[10] Further, higher gas prices means retailers typically charge a lower markup in an attempt to compete, thereby reducing local profits even more.[11] Most communities are not significant producers of oil and gas for personal transportation, which means that when local residents spend money at the gas pump, much of that wealth exits the local economy. Savings on gas can add up to significant benefits to regional economies. Not all of the savings will be spent locally, but even a fraction of what is spent annually on personal transportation has the potential to bolster job growth and build wealth within local economies. A study by the California Electric Transportation Coalition found that each dollar saved from gas spending and spent on other household goods and services generates 16 jobs in the state. [12] A few specific examples underscore how significant the import substitution effect of electric vehicles can be. New Yorkers drive much less than the average U.S. metro resident, which keeps $19 billion each year flowing within the local economy. [13] In Portland, Oregon, residents drive only four miles less per day than the national urban average, but the fuel savings still result in $2.6 billion dollars each year staying local.[14]
With savings of these magnitudes being realized by trimming only a few miles off the national driving average, it is clear that decreasing operational costs of vehicles can add up to massive amounts of wealth staying local and creating jobs. Electric vehicles prevent local wealth from being literally pumped away and, as these examples make clear, the gains to local economies can be significant. 2.2.4: Electric Vehicle Can Decrease Utility Prices Electric vehicles have the potential to decrease, or at least moderate the growth of, utility rates. For a technology that will increase total demand for electricity, this may seem counter-intuitive. The reason that electric vehicles may actually decrease utility rates lies in daily oscillations in power consumption. Electric vehicles typically charge at night, when electricity is cheapest to generate. By balancing the demand for electricity between day and night, electric vehicles decrease the average cost of electricity. Thus, overall rates decrease. One potential future technology allows vehicles to feed electricity back into the grid, a reverse charge system known as “vehicle to grid” (V2G). Peak hours of electricity demand generally occur in the early to mid-afternoon, when most commuter vehicles are sitting idle and can feed power back into the grid.[15] Conversely, electric vehicles are generally charging in the later-evening, overnight, and in the early morning, when there is excess generation capacity in the grid. As a result, large-scale deployment of electric vehicles will allow utilities to dispense with power plants that are currently only needed to satisfy peak demand, a prospect that could substantially decrease operating costs and therefore utility rates. Further, V2G can accommodate greater use Initial studies estimate that electric vehicle owners can make $300 to $500 per year through V2G.[16] However, this may differ from grid to grid. Electric vehicles may earn more by providing a backup power source for quick- response utility markets. These markets include “spinning reserves” generation, which provide immediate backup power for 10 minute spurts, and frequency regulation, which balances generation to ensure an even electricity flow through outlets at all times. Frequency regulation requires adjusting output about 400 times a day, and electric vehicles can respond within seconds to this need. It is possible that electric vehicles can earn up to $5,000 a year in frequency regulation markets.16 Nuuve Corporation, a leading V2G pilot program, is currently testing 30 electric vehicles for
network of users, NGO's, associations, interest groups, etc. Its main objective is promoting the use of battery, hybrid and fuel cell electric vehicles (individually and in fleets) for priority uses in order to achieve a greener mobility for cities and countries. To achieve these objectives, AVERE's activities are related to dissemination, networking, monitoring, participation in European and multilateral projects, lobbying, and research and development. [45] Domestic Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI) The Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI) has been playing a crucial role in assuring safe, less polluting and more efficient vehicles. ARAI provides technical expertise in R & D, testing, certification, homologation and framing of vehicle regulations. ARAI is research association of the Automotive Industry with Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises, Government of India. It works in harmony and complete confidence with its members, customers and the Government of India to offer the finest services, which earned for itself ISO 9001, ISO 14001, OHSAS 18001 and NABL accreditations. ARAI is well-equipped with state-of-the-art infra-structural facilities and highly qualified manpower. [48] Electric Vehicle Association of India (EVAI) The Electric Vehicle Association of India is an organization of electric vehicle owners, educators and enthusiasts dedicated to promoting the use of electric vehicles (EVs) as an environmental and energy benefit to society. [41][49] Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles (SMEV) SMEV is the perfect platform to learn, share and experience as we move forward into an age where alternative energy efficient modes of transportation would be in demand. Electric Vehicle Technology is gaining ground and popularity rapidly. This
segment has tremendous potential as it is an environment–friendly, non-polluting means of transportation. [41] [50] 2.3: Country Using Electric Vehicle (EV) and Benefits on their Country 2.3: United States 2.3.1: Electric Vehicles Brief History The electric vehicle was first developed in the 1830s by a number of inventors including Thomas Davenport and Robert Anderson. These early electric vehicles ran on non-rechargeable batteries and far outsold gas cars for decades. [19] However, cars were still a curiosity for the rich. Then in the 1910s, the Ford Motor Company began to mass produce the Model T, a gas car that would become the transportation icon of the middle class. Henry Ford chose gas power over electricity and steam because gas cars could travel much further between refueling. Furthermore, electric cars were vulnerable to breaking down, and mechanics were few and far between. The assembly line-produced Model T saw runaway sales, and with it, America’s thirst for gasoline grew. Renewed interest in the electric vehicle began in the 1960s and 1970s as Congress sought to reduce air pollution and vulnerability to rising oil prices. A combination of public and private investment spurred the beginning of mass production of electric vehicles in the late 1990s and throughout the 2000s. [19] 2.3.2: Current PEV Sales and Industry Employment The market for purely electric vehicles is in its infancy. The Nissan Leaf was the first to become available in the U.S., with Ford, Toyota, and Honda rolling out models in 2011 and 2012. The Nissan Leaf sold 8,720 in its first 11 months. [20] Nissan expects to sell over 10,000 of the Leaf within the first year of rollout.[21] The Tesla Model S, a luxury BEV, received considerable attention including Motor Trend’s “Car of the Year” award in 2012. In the long term, Pike Research projects that BEVs will account for 0.8% of U.S. car sales by 2017. [22] The market for PEVs and EREVs is more developed, but has yet to reach rapid deployment. Hybrids have been retrofitted for plug-in capability since they were introduced in the early 2000s. The Chevy Volt was the first EREV on the market, but it was soon followed by Toyota and Ford models in 2011 and 2012.[23] Through August 2012, 13,479 Volts were sold.[24] The Volt topped Consumer Reports’ Owner Satisfaction Survey for both 2011 and 2012, with 92 percent of owners saying
Key EV Figures
Figure 2. 1 Source: U.S. Department of Energy. (2012, February 7). Data, Analysis & Trends. Alternative Fuels & Advanced Vehicles Figure 2. 2 Source: Wards Auto. (2012). U.S. Car and Truck Sales, 1931-2011. [61]
2.3.4: Factors Influencing the Growth of U.S Market 2.3.4.1: Cost of Batteries and Fuel The relatively higher cost of PEVs has held the market back from fully competing with conventional vehicles. The cost of batteries is the primary factor behind PEVs’ high sticker price. Because of battery deterioration, PEV resale values are also uncertain. However, PEVs have much lower operational costs. The cost of charging electric vehicles is roughly a quarter of what it costs to fuel a conventional vehicle that gets 30 miles per gallon.[28] Even plug-in hybrids that still run on gas can decrease fuel costs by a substantial margin. The lower operational cost of electric vehicles is a comparative advantage that is further strengthened by volatile gas prices. Moving forward, battery costs and fuel costs will together determine how quickly PEVs become the demonstrably cheaper option for personal transportation and, thus, how rapidly this market expands. The outlook for these costs will be discussed below. [28] 2 .3.4.2: Cost of Advance Batteries Batteries make up roughly one-third of the cost of today’s electric vehicles. Unique assembly lines for PEV batteries lead to higher manufacturing costs. Further, electric vehicles require batteries with both high endurance and power, and there is often a tradeoff between these capacities. Lithium ion batteries, which encompass a number of competing sub-technologies, are the most commonly used batteries for vehicle applications. However, they are also expensive. A lithium ion battery with average range of 60-80 miles costs between $10,000 and $15,000, more than the price differential between PEVs and traditional vehicles.[29] In 2012, Ford’s chief executive revealed that its battery pack costs between $522 and $620 per kWh, which equates to one third of the entire cost of the electric car.[30] The United States Advanced Battery Consortium has set a target of $150 per kWh for advanced electric vehicle batteries.[31] This is the price point they believe will make long-term commercialization possible. However, it is difficult to set a hard price point because changes in other cost factors can move the tipping point. As will be discussed in more detail below, a significant increase in the cost of gas could make PEVs cost competitive even without decreasing the cost of batteries. Regardless of the specific
prices between gas and electricity play out will be crucial to the adoption of electric vehicles. The fact that operational costs of conventional vehicles are more responsive to oil prices than electric vehicles are to electricity prices is a key tipping point in this competitive race. For example, one study found that gas prices rising to $4.50 per gallon, coupled with decreased battery costs, would make electric vehicles significantly cheaper to own and operate than conventional vehicles.[38] This is true even with the same proportional increase in electricity prices.[39] 2.4: India 2.4.1: Potential of EV in India The passenger vehicle segment in India has shown significant growth over the past few years. Since 2004, sales in this sector have grown significantly, with estimates putting the compounded annual growth rate at about 13.15%. 2010-11 for instance showed a significant increase in growth, with numbers indicating that the sales peaked and showed year on year growth of about 30%. With electric vehicles being primarily targeted at the passenger vehicle segment, these numbers are heartening. With the growing interest in a cleaner lifestyle and a booming medium to high income population, EV manufacturers can see substantial sales figures if the market is properly monetized. In addition to just sales number, the other factors that make India the ideal market for electric vehicles include: Established auto component infrastructure Low manufacturing and R&D costs Mechanical hardware availability High urban congestion Volatile price hikes for fossil fuels Low market (passenger vehicles) saturation 2.4.2: Technology in India Almost all vehicles on the road today are powered by fossil fuels. These vehicles use what is known as an internal combustion engine to burn the fossil fuel thus generating the required energy to power the vehicle. EVs, though similar to traditional vehicles, use a different source of energy – electricity. The difference in choice of energy source means that the vehicles use different components.
Some of the components that are exclusive to EVs include: Electric Motors This device converts the electrical energy stored in a battery to mechanical energy thus propelling the vehicle forward (or back). Depending on the type of electricity that is supplied to the motor, one of two types of motors are used – AC (Alternating Current) motors or DC (Direct Current) motors. Electric Generators The function of a generator is exactly the opposite of that of a motor – it converts mechanical energy to electrical energy. In some vehicles the two functions – that of a motor and the generator is combined into a single device known as motor-generator. Inverters Battery packs invariably supply DC current. In order to use an AC motor in an EV, it should be coupled with the battery pack using an inverter. The function of the inverter is to convert the DC current produced by the battery to AC current which can be used by the motor. Chargers A charger works in conjunction with a generator. It aids in converting the AC electrical output produced by a generator into DC so as to help charge the battery pack. These devices are usually fitted with a control mechanism known as a charge controller to optimize the charging process so as to prolong the life of the battery. Large Battery Packs Battery packs store the energy that is required to power an EV. The variants of electric vehicles use different types of battery packs (lead acid, NiMH, Li-ion). Of these systems though, the Li-ion battery pack is the one that is gaining the most momentum and is likely to be the
